The Australian dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to show signs of exhaustion. Ultimately, this is a sign that we will continue to see a lot of volatility out there, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that the world continues to suffer from a huge lack of demand and of course the fact that most economies around the world are basically shut down due to the coronavirus.
Because of this, it’s going to be difficult to imagine a scenario where commodities do well, as the demand for some of the major Australian exports will certainly be very low. This is especially true because China is the number one destination for Australian commodities, and therefore it makes sense that the Australian dollar demand will drop.
Furthermore, there is demand for US dollars longer-term, especially considering that the treasury markets have been rallying what seems to be nonstop.
Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see more downward pressure after white can only be thought of as a parabolic move. Because of this, I like the idea of fading short-term rallies, but if we were to break down below the hammer from the Thursday session, I believe it will open up the trapdoor for a move much lower.
At that point, I would anticipate the 0.62 level to be targeted, and then possibly the 0.60 level underneath. Furthermore, we have the 50 day EMA in the mix over the last couple of days.